Forex Daily Outlook – October 27th 2009

After weeks of weakness, the US dollar made a strong corrective move, gaining across the board. Today’s CB Consumer Confidence is the main event, and there are lots of other events all over the world. Let’s see what’s up for today:

Australian NAB Quarterly Business Confidence was finally published, and it turned positive, rising to 16 points. This helped the Aussie slightly recover. AUD/USD now trades at 0.9180. The Australian dollar was also hit by yesterday’s disappointing PPI, that rose by only 0.1% last quarter.

For more on the Aussie, read the AUD/USD Forecast.

In Switzerland, the UBS Consumption Indicator is due today. USD/CHF is now getting away from parity. If you’re into the Swissy, check out James Chen’s recent technical analysis for this pair.

In Europe, the M3 Money Supply is expected to grow more slowly, at 2.1%, showing that deflation is still strong. EUR/USD now trades at 1.4895, bouncing off the support line. Read Casey Stubbs’ analysis about the Euro’s corrective move.

For more on the Euro, read the EUR/USD Forecast.

The British Pound is weathering this dollar correction quite well, with GBP/USD currently at 1.6335. CBI Realized Sales are due to double from 3 to 6 points, helping the Pound.

For more on the Pound, read the GBP/USD Forecast.

Moving to the US, the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI is expected to show a softer fall in prices. An annualized figure of a 11.9% fall is predicted to be reported, better than the 13.3% fall.

The CB Consumer Confidence is expected to show that consumers are a little bit more confident, rising from 53.1 to 53.7 points. Late in the day, Timothy Geithner will be speaking, and he might slip something that will move the markets.

In Canada, BOC governor Mark Carney will start testifying in parliament and will talk about last week’s monetary report. USD/CAD gained from the dollar’s correction, rising above the 1.0625 support line, currently trading at 1.0684.

For more on the loonie, read the USD/CAD Forecast.

Japanese Retail Sales close the day, with an expected annual fall of 1.5%.

That’s it for today. Happy forex trading!


Forex Trend Analysis/Technical Levels 27th Sep 10

FOREX Trend Analysis

EURUSD current bull move shows good strength from the lows and has broken out to the levels not seen since April. It is probably heading towards much higher levels in the coming months time. The immediate resistance is seen near 1.3510 which is the 50 day SMA on the weekly charts and is also the 50% Fibonacci levels of 1.5140-1.1878 fall. A break above this will confirm another rise until 1.3900 and 1.40 the physiological resistance level. At the current scenario if any fall occurs should stop near the strong support zones of 1.3280 levels.

GBPUSD rally extends the gains to the highs of 1.5840 so far and the current rally is expected to test the previous highs of 1.5997. On the lower side, below 1.5650 the trend may turn neutral again and a break below 1.5500 areas if happens then it can be said as the top is formed and the rally which started from the lows of 1.5296 is finished.

USDJPY after the sharp rise meets resistance near 85.90 and remains below it. The trend still remains bearish and can continue further lower until 82.90 areas. For bullishness to continue we must see a close above the resistance levels of 86.

AUDUSD breaks the previous highs of 0.9405 and is heading to test the next higher resistance of 0.9849 in the coming weeks. The strong support zone is now seen at 0.9410-0.9460 areas. It is trading well above the 200 and100 day moving averages indicating further bullishness.

Crude Oil took good supports near the tentative trend line supports of $73.50 and resumed the uptrend which now nears the resistance of 200 day SMA at $77 and a break above this can ignite another up-move towards the higher resistance of $78/82 in the coming weeks. Only a close below the supports of $72.60 may bring bearishness until $70.60 levels.

Gold as anticipated continues higher and almost test1300 levels. Still there are no signals of profit taking and until it remains above the supports of 1265 the trend may continue higher until 1355/1400 in the medium term. Only a close below the 14 day SMA and the support of 1260 may form a top on the ongoing upward trend. Most of the indicators are running in the over bought areas but the price has still not given any topping or a reversal pattern.

Capital Market Trend Analysis

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